Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT)

Analyzing Relative Performance

StockStreaks focuses primarily on Relative Strength. Currently, Fortinet, Inc. is showing a L5 Relative Streak. This means that for the last 5 consecutive trading sessions, the stock has underperformed the S&P 500 index. During this specific streak, the stock has moved approximately -4.62% relative to the market benchmark.

Absolute Price Action

On a raw price basis, FTNT is on a L5 Absolute Streak, meaning it has closed red (lower) for 5 days in a row. While relative performance isolates stock-specific behavior, this absolute streak reflects the raw capital appreciation (or depreciation) experienced by holders, totaling -4.97% during this period.

Tension Score & Mean Reversion Potential

Currently, FTNT is registering a Tension Score of 74/100, which is considered Elevated. This proprietary metric indicates that the recent move is behaving within normal expectations relative to its historical volatility profile. Historically, when FTNT reaches comparable tension levels, our models calculate a 50% probability of it outperforming the SPY in the next session, suggesting a potential mean reversion event.

Relative Prediction Analysis

For FTNT, we compare the Historical Reversal Rate (80%) to the Model Probability of a reversal.

The negative divergence of -30% indicates that a reversal is less likely than history suggests. The model detects that current conditions—such as a low Tension Score or supportive Sector trends—favor a continuation (further underperformance) of the current streak.

Absolute Prediction Analysis (Green Day)

We analyze the likelihood of FTNT closing higher tomorrow compared to its historical L5 reversal frequency (80%).

The negative divergence of -29% indicates that the model sees a lower chance of reversal, meaning continuation (another red day) is more probable. This is often the case when Tension (74) remains low, suggesting the move has not yet reached a statistical exhaustion point.

Metric Definitions

• Historical Reversal Rate: The percentage of time in the past that a streak of this specific type and length ended (reversed) on the very next day. This is an unconditional historical frequency.
• T+1 Return: The percentage return of the asset on the next trading day (T+1) following the streak event. This is the primary outcome metric used to evaluate predictive edge.
• Streak Pattern (e.g., L3, W5): "L" denotes a Losing streak (underperforming SPY or closing Red), "W" denotes a Winning streak. The number indicates consecutive days.
• Relative Return: The stock's return minus the SPY's return for the same period. If FTNT is +1% and SPY is +2%, the Relative Return is -1%.
• Absolute Return: The raw price change of the asset. If FTNT is +1%, the Absolute Return is +1%.